At 10:15 am on Sunday 21 September, the Atletico Madrid squad will step onto the grass at Estadi Son Moix for a La Liga showdown against Mallorca. The match marks the third round of the Spanish top flight, and the venue will be buzzing with more than 23,000 fans hoping to see their side claim a crucial three points.
For the hosts, the stakes are simple: snap a winless streak that has stretched across four league fixtures. Their last outing saw a 3‑2 defeat to Espanyol at the RCDE Stadium, a game in which they dominated possession with 62 % and fired ten shots on target, yet still fell short. Goal‑scorer Vedat Muriqi did his part, but the overall result left Mallorca searching for answers. A win would not only lift morale but also keep their survival hopes alive.
Across the border in Madrid, Los Colchoneros come in buoyed by a 2‑0 triumph over Villarreal at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano. That match featured 61 % possession, three clear‑cut chances, and goals from Pablo Barrios and Nico Gonzalez. However, the joy from the domestic win is tempered by a 3‑2 loss to Liverpool in the Champions League a few days earlier. The late‑stage goal concession may have rattled the squad, but the manager’s message remains focused on domestic consistency.
Form, head‑to‑head and line‑up outlook
When you stack the recent form numbers, the contrast is stark. Mallorca have recorded one draw and three defeats, collecting just a single point from their opening four games. Their defensive frailties are evident, conceding eight goals while scoring only three. On the flip side, Atletico have amassed six points from their first three league matches, boasting a solid defensive record of just two goals allowed.
The head‑to‑head ledger further tips the balance. In the last ten meetings between the two clubs, Atletico have emerged victorious seven times. That dominance includes a 3‑0 win in the previous season’s derby, underscoring a psychological edge that often translates into betting markets.
Speaking of line‑ups, the anticipated starting eleven for Atletico is likely to feature keeper Jan Oblak, a back‑four anchored by Kieran Trippier and Stefan Savić, with a midfield trio of Marcos Llorente, Thomas Ludwig and the ever‑reliable Koke. Up front, Antoine Griezmann is expected to lead the attack, supported by the in‑form Nico Gonzalez.
Mallorca, on the other hand, may line up with the Argentine keeper Jaume Losada between the sticks, a defense built around José Gómez Ramos and Pedro Bellón, and a midfield spearheaded by John McGinn. Up front, Muriqi and Álex Abrines are expected to shoulder the goal‑scoring burden.
Betting market, odds and expert tips
Bookmakers have already priced the outcome heavily in favour of the visitors. The current win odds for Atletico sit at -139, translating to a 58 % implied probability. Draw odds hover around +340, while a Mallorca win is listed at +500, reflecting a 16 % implied chance for a surprise upset.
Beyond the straightforward 1X2 market, experts are eyeing a few specific lines that offer value:
- Both teams to score – No. With Mallorca struggling to find the net in recent fixtures and Atletico often keeping clean sheets, the BTTS‑No market is priced at around 1.85.
- Under 2.5 goals – The recent matches on both sides have produced a modest goal tally. The under 2.5 market sits at 1.90, making it an attractive option for cautious punters.
- Antoine Griezmann to miss the target – Analysts note that Griezmann has recorded only one shot on target in his last three La Liga appearances. The prop for Griezmann failing to register a shot on target is offered at 2.20.
- Bet builder combo – Combine an Atletico win, under 2.5 goals and Griezmann without a shot on target. This bundled offering can push returns to over 4.00, depending on the bookmaker.
From a tactical perspective, Atletico are likely to deploy a compact, counter‑attacking shape that exploits the pace of Griezmann and Gonzalez. Their midfield will aim to control possession but also spring quick passes over a Mallorca defense that has been vulnerable to swift transitions. For the home side, the key will be pressing high to disrupt Atletico’s buildup and creating set‑piece opportunities, an area where they have scored three of their five season goals.
Travel logistics could also play a subtle role. Atletico’s recent Champions League trip to Liverpool involved a long flight and minimal recovery time before this La Liga fixture. The squad’s ability to bounce back will test the depth of their bench and the effectiveness of the coaching staff’s rotation policy.
On the fan front, Mallorca supporters are eager to break their winless streak, hoping that the home crowd’s energy will lift the team. Meanwhile, Atletico’s travelling fans often bring a lively atmosphere, capable of intimidating opponents even on foreign soil.
All the variables—form, head‑to‑head history, player availability and betting odds—point to a match where Atletico are the clear favorites, yet football’s unpredictability always leaves room for a shock. Whether the game folds into a low‑scoring affair or opens up with a surprise goal, the intrigue lies in watching how the two tactical approaches clash on the pitch.
Gift OLUWASANMI
September 21, 2025 AT 22:30Atletico will steamroll Mallorca, no contest.
Keith Craft
September 21, 2025 AT 23:20The drama of this fixture is palpable, and I can already feel the tension building like a storm about to break. The stakes for both teams could not be higher, and every supporter is holding their breath for a twist of fate. It feels as though the universe itself is urging us to witness an epic showdown, not just a routine league match.
Kara Withers
September 22, 2025 AT 00:10When you break down the odds, the -139 price on Atletico reflects a solid but not invincible edge.
Their defensive record of just two goals conceded suggests they can keep a clean sheet against a side that has let in eight.
However, Mallorca's set‑piece threat has produced three of their five goals, so a dead‑ball could be the difference.
Looking at the head‑to‑head, seven wins in the last ten give Atletico a psychological advantage that can translate into confidence.
The midfield trio of Llorente, Ludwig and Koke provides both creativity and grit, essential for controlling tempo.
Griezmann's form has been patchy, but his ability to draw defenders creates space for Gonzalez's runs.
Gonzalez’s finishing rate this season is improving, and he could exploit any lapses in the Mallorcan back line.
On the other side, John McGinn offers hustle and a direct passing option that could catch Atletico off‑guard.
Muriqi, despite a modest goal tally, is a physical presence in the box who can win aerial duels.
If Mallorca can keep the ball low and press high, they might force Atletico into errors.
The under 2.5 market looks attractive because both sides have been involved in low‑scoring games recently.
Betting on both teams not scoring is another angle, given Mallorca's recent drought in front of goal.
Travel fatigue after the Liverpool trip could slightly blunt Atletico’s intensity, especially in the opening 15 minutes.
A smart approach would be to back an Atletico win while hedging with the under 2.5 goal line.
Overall, the most likely scenario is a narrow victory for Atletico, perhaps 1‑0 or 2‑1, with the defensive solidity playing the decisive role.
boy george
September 22, 2025 AT 01:00Nice breakdown I see you covered the angles well.
Cheryl Dixon
September 22, 2025 AT 01:50Everyone is blinded by the favourites and the odds ignore the chaos that can erupt on a windy night in Mallorca. The under‑dog spirit thrives when the crowd roars louder than the confidence of the visitors. Betting markets love the obvious, but football loves the unexpected twist that no analyst can predict. Keep an eye on a late set‑piece surprise that could flip the script entirely.